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NAM-ACCF Study Predicts Grim Cap and Trade Legislation Effects

August 19, 2009
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WASHINGTON, D.C.-The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) and the American Council for Capital Formation (ACCF) have unveiled a study on the impact of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, also known as the Waxman-Markey Bill (HR 2454).

The bill aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to cap the amount of carbon that is emitted by U.S. industry. The legislation does so by mandating a cap and trade program and other provisions governing fuel choices available to businesses and consumers. This bill passed the House of Representatives by a slim margin (219-212) earlier this summer. The Senate is expected to release its version of climate legislation in September.

The NAM/ACCF study accounts for all federal energy laws and regulations currently in effect. It accounts for increased access to oil and natural gas supplies, new and extended tax credits for renewable generation technologies, increased world oil price (WOP) profile, as well as permit allocations for industry and international offsets. Additionally, the provisions of the stimulus package passed in February are included in this study. Key findings include:

  • Cumulative loss in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) up to $3.1 trillion (2012-2030)
  • Employment losses up to 2.4 million jobs in 2030
  • Residential electricity price increases up to 50% by 2030
  • Gasoline price increases (per gallon) up 26% by 2030

    Further, this study shows industrial states would be disproportionately impacted by high energy prices, loss of jobs and income. The 15 states analyzed in the initial study include:

    1. Arkansas
    2. Illinois
    3. Indiana
    4. Iowa
    5. Kentucky
    6. Michigan
    7. Minnesota
    8. Missouri
    9. North Carolina
    10. Ohio
    11. Pennsylvania
    12. Tennessee
    13. Virginia
    14. West Virginia
    15. Wisconsin

    SAIC used a modified version of the National Energy Modeling System, NEMS/ACCF-NAM 2, and the NAM and ACCF input assumptions, to quantify the impact of the Waxman-Markey bill.

    The study, which was commissioned by the NAM and ACCF and conducted by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) using NAM and ACCF input assumptions, assesses the impact of the Waxman-Markey Bill on manufacturing, jobs, energy prices and the overall U.S. economy. The NAM and ACCF released national data as well as the analysis for 15 industrial states that would be impacted greatly if this or similar legislation is signed into law. The full report, including the data covering the remaining 35 states will be released in the coming weeks.

    The national and 15 state-by-state economic impacts can be found by visiting http://www.accf.org/publications/126/accf-nam-study.
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