On August 22, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave the strongest indication to date that an interest rate cut is in the cards during his address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

“The baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” said Powell, citing the simultaneous upside risk to inflation and downside risk to employment.

“Despite inflation remaining above the Fed’s 2% target, lower rates will strengthen the position of consumers, who have been feeling real income pressures for quite some time,” said Christopher Chidzik, principal economist of AMT – The Association For Manufacturing Technology. “Meeting increased consumer demand and business investment would require additional investment in manufacturing technology, especially considering the existing challenges from a labor market that, despite softening, remains tight.”

While the Fed seems to be on pace to reduce rates in its September meeting, Powell characteristically cautioned that “monetary policy is not on a preset course,” and the current path may change, given additional data points, a possibly changing outlook, and a potential rebalancing of risks to achieving their dual mandate.

AMT’s annual MTForecast conference will be held Oct. 15-17 in Schaumburg, IL. For more information, visit www.amtonline.org.